A Collaborative Platform for India’s Economic Foresight: The Indian Business-Cycles Foresight Institute (IBFI) is an open, independent platform dedicated to strengthening India’s capability in business-cycle research, macro-environment measurement, and long-term demand foresight. IBFI brings together ideas, insights, and analytical frameworks from industry professionals, economists, researchers, data scientists, strategists, and corporate leaders who believe that India needs stronger, forward-looking economic intelligence. Founded by Pinaki Mukherjee, IBFI is built with the mindset of collaboration, shared learning, and collective foresight —not ownership. What IBFI Stands For A shared space for deep economic thinking IBFI is designed as a neutral, non-commercial platform where anyone working on Indian macroeconomics, cycles, demand, forecasting, or strategic intelligence can contribute knowledge, data, methods, or perspective. An ecosystem, not an in...
Measuring the Impact of Import Substitution and Export Promotion on India's GDP Growth: An Econometric Analysis toward Viksit Bharat@2047
My recent paper " Measuring the Impact of Import Substitution and Export Promotion on India's GDP Growth: An Econometric Analysis toward Viksit Bharat@2047 ," empirically examines whether these policy paradigms are substitutes or complementary components of India's long-run growth process. Using annual data for 1991–2025, the study estimates a Johansen cointegration framework, a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), impulse response functions and a moderation model to analyse the interactions among GDP, manufacturing, exports and technological capability. Three findings emerge. First , manufacturing provides structural depth: Manufacturing value added has a strong long-run association with GDP and serves as an anchor of India’s equilibrium growth path. Second , exports expand the growth frontier: Export shocks produce persistent and progressively positive effects on GDP, rather than merely providing a temporary demand stimulus. Third , technology determines how effect...